Assessment of Cereal Self-sufficiency and Food Balance Projection in Afghanistan

Aims: Afghanistan is overwhelmed with food insecurity, thus severe shortages in which a large percentage of the population lacks reliable access to supplies. Cereals such as wheat, rice, and maize play vital role country's security due their importance terms consumption production quantity. This paper estimates cereal self-sufficiency then makes balance forecast three major crops - cultivated over six-decades (1979 – 2030).
 Methodology: Descriptive statistics, ARIMA model, coarse metric technique were employed analyze data from United Nations Food Agricultural Organization (FAO), States Department Agriculture PSD Database (USDA), World Population Division databases determine forecast.
 Results Econometric analysis demonstrated that (1) not yet self-sufficient meeting grain consumption. (2) The ratio declined 0.9 0.55 1979 2030. (3) gap theoretical imbalance will increase, by year 2030, likely be sufficient for only 49.8 inhabitants, leaving high shortage equivalent amount required 24.4 million people. (4) Per capita possibly decrease 120.8 kg 95.4 per person between 2018 2030.
 Conclusion: By evaluating quantitative growing change, this study presents an emerging threat Afghanistan's security. Therefore, we recommended government should increase size public agricultural expenditure, improve level agriculture infrastructure, cultivation area cereals, continue introduce policy achieve higher yield.